Brian Burke over at Advanced NFL Stats waxes about Manning to Tyree. It was one of my favorite sports moments of all time and something I’ve been meaning to write about anyways.
From the win probability analysis of Super Bowl XLII:
+0.19 for Tyree’s catch.
+0.41 for the TD pass to Burress.
Sadly, few will remember the 2-yd gain by Jacobs on 4th and 1 to keep the drive alive, but that play had a WPA of +.21. If Tyree doesn’t make the catch, the drive is still alive–it was ‘only’ 3rd down. If Jacobs is stuffed—that’s all she wrote.
Of course, there’s no good way to quantify the style points for Tyree’s miraculous grab or Manning’s escape from the sack.
Eli’s great escape is what made the play for me. It was almost like he refused to go down. After Tyree’s catch, I had a feeling that the game was over for the Patriots and it was. I talked about kinetic beauty in sports. That play wasn’t particularly beautiful in a conventional manner, but I thought it was beautiful anyways.